Washington Caps Wont Win the East Again
Only one team, the Pittsburgh Penguins, has hoisted Lord Stanley's Loving cup in dorsum-to-back seasons since the tun of the century, and simply 1 other team, the Detroit Crimson Wings, has done and then since the days of Wayne Gretzky and the Edmonton Oilers dynasty of the 1980s. Winning the Cup is difficult to do in one case, let solitary consecutively, and we tin thank the high level of parity in the league today for that.
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For the Capitals true-blue excited at the prospect of some other deep come across the postseason, these Stanley Cup Playoffs will be a hard pill to consume. Information technology took more than 40 years of relative mediocrity and fruitless playoff appearances in 10 of the 11 seasons leading into last yr's championship run before the Caps finally realized the sugariness bliss of NHL superiority. And despite seemingly promising results on paper in 2018-nineteen, another scoring title for Alexander Ovechkin and a roster almost fully intact from last season, a second-direct championship isn't in the cards for the Capitals. Hither's why.
Stats Don't Lie
Popular opinion (or perchance merely overly optimistic lower-seeded teams) says you can toss out the regular flavor stats at the outset of the playoffs because it'due south a clean slate and a whole new flavor. Well, don't. Trends are trends for a reason, and there are some unavoidable numbers staring all the doubters right in the face.
While the Capitals went an impressive fourteen-v-one over the final 20 games of the season on their way to a quaternary consecutive Metropolitan Division championship, hither'south a expect at some of the underlying numbers.
Against Eastern Conference playoff teams, the Capitals' head-to-head record was underwhelming. In 4 games each against potential 2nd-round foes, the Penguins and New York Islanders, the Caps were a combined 3-4-i, averaging simply 2.38 goals-for and 3.38 goals-confronting. Against potential third-round opponents, the Caps were a mediocre v-6-2 combined.
When it comes to scoring, the team finished 3rd in the East behind the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs with 278 goals. Of those, Rocket Richard Trophy-winner Alex Ovechkin scored 51, nearly 20 percentage, with the next highest scorer, T.J. Oshie, notching less than half that at 25. It's a risky suggestion to depend on one thespian for so much of your law-breaking, especially when opposing defenses will be actress mindful of Ovi's offensive-zone presence in the high-stakes playoffs.
On the flip side of the coin, the Caps' defence was sub-par at best during the regular flavor, and the goaltending was often shaky. The Caps finished with 249 goals against, ranked eighth in the East with 53 more lamp-lighters immune than league-leader Tampa Bay.
Starting netminder Braden Holtby saw 1,795 shots against, which ranked seventh most among all goaltenders despite the Capitals coming in fourth in the East with 1,234 blocked shots. In 58 starts, Holtby finished with just a .911 salve pct, well behind the league leaders who finished well into the .930 range. In tight, one-or-two-goal postseason games, these numbers aren't going to cutting information technology.
Capitals Special Teams
More than ofttimes than not, the Stanley Cup Playoffs come up down to special teams. Who can outperform the other team when it matters nigh? Who has all facets of their game buttoned upward at a championship level? The answer is what separates title contenders from the pack, and the Capitals are decidedly in the pack.
Amongst Eastern Conference playoff teams, the Capitals finished fifth during the regular flavor with a 20.8 ability-play percentage and final with just a 78.9 percent penalty-impale efficiency.
Of their 49 ability-play goals, Ovechkin had eighteen, with no other player reaching half that number. Once more, that's a lot eggs in i basket in the event of injury or a dreaded playoff scoring slump. As far as the punishment-killing goes, as the tertiary most penalized team in the E with 261 opponent power play opportunities, they'll either have to meliorate dramatically overnight to shore upwardly this glaring weak spot or exist a ton more than disciplined when information technology comes to taking penalties.
The Tampa Bay Lightning
Information technology's non simply the Capitals; the Tampa Bay Lightning appear on every playoff team's list of reasons they won't win the Loving cup this year. The Lightning, with their 62-xvi-iv regular season record, tied the NHL mark for wins and registered the fewest regulation losses (xvi) since, ironically, the 2009-10 Washington Capitals, who dropped only 15 in regulation that season.
On the showtime day of the playoffs, Las Vegas sportsbooks had the Lightning'south odds at 2-1 to win the Cup, and despite their stumble out of the blocks in Game 1 against the Blueish Jackets, they're a looming giant to all fifteen other playoff teams in the hunt for the hardware.
The Bolts amazingly won every unmarried one of their flavor series against Eastern Conference opponents, including a 2-1 record and a four.67 average goals-for against the Capitals, and only had losing records against iii Western Conference foes.
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With a relatively recent Loving cup to their proper noun and trips to the Eastern Conference Final or better in 3 of their past four seasons, not only are the Lightning the best team in the league, they have the playoff experience to back it up and seriously compete this yr for the second Loving cup in franchise history.
That means, at 12-1 Las Vegas odds, the Tampa Bay Lightning are one of the biggest reasons the Washington Capitals won't echo as Stanley Cup Champions in 2019.
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